Conflict Risk Assessment

Annex 1 | Conflict risk screening guide taken from the World Bank’s Conflict Analysis Framework

1.	History of conflict	If a country has experienced violent conflict in the past 10 years, there is a high possibility of recurrence of conflict.
2.	Income per capita	Countries with low per capita Gross National Income are more likely to experience violent conflict (eg US$745 per capita per annum).
3.	Primary commodity exports	Countries with a high dependence on primary commodity exports face a higher risk of experiencing violent conflict (eg greater than 16% as a proportion of GDP).
4.	Political instability: - Transformation of state structure - Breakdown of law and order	- Restructuring of the state at frequent intervals signals serious instability and the likelihood that violence may be employed to bring about systemic changes. - When the government is not able to maintain control or effective rule (in certain parts or throughout the country), the breakdown of law and order, and hence violence, is likely. - In terms of their link to violent conflict, these two aspects can occur in tandem or independently.
5.	Political and civil rights	The deliberate and systematic denial of civil liberties and political rights increases the likelihood that groups will express dissenting views through violence, thus increasing the probability of violent conflict.
6.	Militarisation	Countries may have high defence spending as a share of GDP, and large armies as a proportion of their population. Militarisation may also include the availability of arms and the existence of armed non-state actors. These facts suggest the likelihood of emerging or escalating violent conflict.
7.	Ethnic dominance	When one ethnic group controls state institutions and/or the economy, there is a high risk of outbreak of violent conflict.
8.	Active regional conflicts	Regional conflicts are likely to have a cascading effect, such that the internal stability of a country is threatened, increasing the probability of violent conflict.
9.	Youth unemployment	Youth unemployment (especially for males) can have a critical bearing on the probability of violent conflict. Lack of jobs and opportunities tend to create frustration, making unemployed youth prime candidates for recruitment by militant organizations.