Conflict Risk Assessment
Annex 2: Key Questions for Conflict Analysis
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(with minor adaptations from Chapter 2 of the Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment resource pack).
These are not intended as a definitive list, but rather as a guide to the sort of questions which a conflict analysis should be seeking to answer. A similar, but simplified list, is available in DfID’s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes.
Key questions for a conflict profile
What is the political, economic, and socio-cultural context?
e.g. physical geography, population make-up, recent history, political and economic structure, social composition, environment, geostrategic position
What are the emergent political, economic, ecological and social issues?
e.g. elections, reform processes, decentralization, new infrastructure, disruption of social networks, mistrust, returnees or refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs), military and civilian deaths, presence of armed forces, mined areas, HIV/AIDS
What specific conflict prone/affected areas can be situated within this context?
e.g. areas of influence of specific actors, frontlines around the location of natural resources, important infrastructure and lines of communication, pockets of socially marginalized or excluded populations.
Is there a history of conflict?
e.g. critical events, mediation efforts, external intervention
Key questions for an analysis of conflict causes
What are structural causes of conflict?
e.g. illegitimate government, lack of political participation, lack of equal economic and social opportunities, inequitable access to natural resources, poor governance
What issues can be considered as proximate causes of conflict?
e.g. uncontrolled security sector, light weapons proliferation, human rights abuses, destablising role of neighbouring countries, role of diasporas
What triggers can contribute to the outbreak/further escalation of conflict?
e.g. elections, arrest/assassination of key leader or political figure, sudden collapse of local currency, military coup, rapid change in unemployment, natural disaster, increased price/scarcity of basic commodities, capital flight
Key questions for an actor analysis
Who are the main actors?
e.g. national government, security sector, local (military) leaders and armed groups, private sector/business, (local, national, transnational), donor agencies (including NZAID) and foreign embassies, multilateral organizations, regional organizations, religious or political networks, independent mediators, civil society, women’s groups, peace groups, trade unions, political parties, neighbouring states, traditional authorities, diaspora groups, refugees/IDPS, all children, women and men living in a given context.
What are their main interest, goals, positions, capacities, and relationships?
e.g. religious values, political ideologies, need for land, interest in political participation, economic resources, constituencies, access to information, political ties, global networks, business linkages, business/economic goals
What institutional capacities for peace can be identified?
e.g. civil society, informal approaches to conflict resolution, traditional authorities, political institutions (e.g. head of state, parliament), judiciary, regional and multilateral bodies
What actors can be identified as spoilers? Why? What are their incentives?
e.g. groups benefiting from the war economy, smugglers, “non-conflict sensitive organizations”.
Key questions for an analysis of conflict dynamics
What are the current conflict trends?
e.g. escalation or de-escalation, changes in important framework conditions
What are windows of opportunity?
e.g. are there positive developments? What factors support them? How can they be strengthened?
What scenarios can be developed from the analysis of the conflict profile, causes and actors?
e.g. best case, middle case and worst case scenarios