Conflict Risk Assessment
Conflict Risk Assessment Glossary
Conflict risk assessment: The process of analyzing a country situation in order to assess better the conflict-related risks associated with development or humanitarian assistance. Conflict assessments usually contain three components: conflict analysis; an analysis of responses to the conflict; and the generation of strategies and options to make development interventions more conflict sensitive.
Conflict analysis: The systematic study of the profile, causes, actors and dynamics of conflict. It helps us to gain a better understanding of the context in which we work and our role in that context.
Conflict profile: A brief characterization of the context within which the intervention will be situated. It includes historic, economic, political, ecological and socio-cultural aspects.
Causes of Conflict: There is rarely a single cause of violent conflict, although it may be triggered by a single event. Rather, there are multiple causes rooted in economic, social and political structures. These often change over the course of the conflict, for example, as the conflict continues, fear or retribution for atrocities can become causes for the continuation of the conflict in themselves. Ethnic, religious and cultural differences are regularly cited as causes for conflict, but these often mask deeper grievances and feelings of injustice or are used by those who stand to gain from conflict to mobilize violence. Causes are often described as:
- Structural: pervasive factors that have become built into the policies, structures and fabric of a society and which may create the pre-conditions for violent conflict
- Proximate: factors contributing to a climate conducive to violent conflict or its further escalation
- Triggers: single key acts, events, or their anticipation that will set off or escalate violent conflict
Conflict actors: The individuals, groups and institutions who contribute to conflict and/or are affected by conflict (in a positive or negative manner), and/or are engaged in dealing with conflict. It is important to understand their motives, the incentives they respond to, and the roles they play.
Conflict dynamics: The resulting interaction between the conflict profile, the actors and causes.
Conflict sensitivity: The process of understanding the context in which you operate; understanding the interaction between your intervention and the context; and acting upon the understanding of this interaction, in order to avoid negative impacts (“do no harm”) and maximise positive impacts.
Peace and Conflict Impact Assessment (PCIA): a means of evaluating (ex post facto) and anticipating (ex ante) the impacts of proposed and completed development Activities on: 1) those structures and processes which strengthen the prospects for peaceful coexistence and decrease the likelihood of the outbreak, reoccurrence, or continuation, of violent conflict; and 2) those structures and processes that increase the likelihood that conflict will be dealt with through violent means. It examines five areas of potential impact: institutional capacity, military and human security, political structures and processes; economic structures and processes, and social reconstruction and empowerment.