Conflict Risk Assessment
How do you undertake conflict-risk assessment?
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If, after using the NZAID Cross Cutting Issues Screening Guide and the World Bank Conflict Risk Screening Guide (Annex 1), the team has decided a conflict-risk assessment is warranted, the next step is to select an appropriate approach, methodology, and tool. The type and depth of conflict-risk assessment appropriate will be determined, among other things, by the level of conflict risk, the level of partner (and/or NZAID) planning processes it is to inform, the sufficiency of existing analysis and information, and in the case of NZAID programmes and Activities, the size, modality, and timeframe of the proposed programme or Activity. The following information focuses on conflict-risk assessment at the national or country or sector strategy level, although it will also have some relevance to Activity level conflict risk assessment.
There are three key components of conflict-risk assessment:
- conflict analysis which analyses the structures, actors and dynamics of a conflict or potential conflict;
- an analysis of responses to the conflict, how these interact with conflict dynamics, and their impacts;
- the generation of strategies and options to make development interventions more conflict sensitive.
Step One: Conflict analysis
The first step of any conflict-risk assessment process involves an analysis of underlying issues. This may draw on existing analyses undertaken by other donors or development partners, be initiated by NZAID, or undertaken in collaboration with other development partners.
Key questions for a conflict analysis
Annex Two contains a list of key questions that a conflict analysis should answer. It should be used as a starting point rather than a definitive list, as each context is unique.
Choosing the right approach
There are a variety of approaches, methodologies and tools for undertaking conflict analysis. It is important that the approach chosen is appropriate to the situation. The following are some questions which you may wish to ask in order to choose the most appropriate tool (you may, of course, wish to adapt an existing tool to particular circumstances), or to draft terms of reference.
Purpose
Is the proposed process consistent with your aims?
Is the tool appropriate to the level you wish to analyse (eg strategy, sector or activity)?
Does the tool provide the information you need for your work?
Assumptions
Do you share the tool’s specific understanding of conflict?
Methodology
Does the proposed methodology match the purpose of the analysis?
Is it appropriate to the context?
How long does it take to gain results?
Resource implications
What are the resource implications of the selected tool (eg staff time, consultant’s inputs, workshop costs, data management, ongoing monitoring costs?)
The following points should be considered when commissioning or planning a conflict analysis.
Politicisation
Conflicts are inherently political and it is important to recognize that no matter the intentions, participants in the analysis (including NZAID) will be seen as having a political agenda. It will be important to consider how you will manage this. Discussion of conflict analysis or conflict-risk assessment may itself be a sensitive issue for some partners. You may need to think carefully about the language that you use to broach this topic with partners. Discussion by programme teams, and with MFAT colleagues is important when deciding how to proceed.
Participants
Conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment is usually greatly enhanced by local knowledge. It can be undertaken in partnership with the partner government or other local actors and doing so can facilitate its application (although care should be taken in choosing partners both to ensure the end product is widely accepted, and that individuals are not exposed to unnecessary risk). In some circumstances, conflict analysis and risk assessment processes can also play a capacity building, or even a peace building, function. Some tools are specifically designed with this aim. In other cases, you may decide that it is most appropriate to undertake the conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment largely within the programme team, although involving others (eg partners, donors, other NZ government agencies) can help create opportunities to improve alignment and harmonisation. It will be important to think carefully about the purpose of a conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment when selecting the most appropriate approach.
Dissemination
It is also important to plan the dissemination of the conflict analysis and conflict-risk assessment. The process and its findings have the potential to play a useful role in stimulating debate. There are also risks that it could provoke a negative reaction amongst some actors.
When you are preparing to commission the conflict-risk assessment, and the conflict analysis component, you should define the audience and potential audience, and develop a dissemination strategy. Your dissemination strategy should include consideration of how to handle awkward issues, and unexpected reactions to the findings. It should also include preparing local contacts to receive the findings. It will be advantageous to work closely with the Head of Mission in doing this.
Step Two: Analysis of responses
This analysis provides the context within which to focus on the role of development interventions and their interaction with conflict. It helps assess the level of coherence between different actors’ responses, and will help identify strategies and options for NZAID.
This stage usually involves:
- Mapping responses of international actors (including military, diplomatic etc)
- Analysing roles of development actors (focus, size, is the approach “in”, “on” or “around” conflict, capacities)
- Assessing the interactions between development interventions and the dynamics of conflict and peace (both the impact of conflict on interventions, and the impact of interventions on conflict)
DfID’s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes are a useful resource.
Step Three: Developing strategies and options
This step is important to determine how NZAID might try to influence whole-of-government, and other international and development actors’ approaches. It also provides an opportunity to reflect on current activities, and to identify opportunities for new initiatives which focus on addressing important issues for peace building. Staff will find DfID’s Conducting Conflict Assessments: Guidance Notes useful.
Annex 3 contains a useful list of questions for strategy teams or staff reviewing the conflict sensitivity of programme activities (adapted from UNDP’s Conflict-related Development Analysis which follows a similar methodology to DfID).
Indicators for ongoing monitoring
Conflict risk assessment is not a one-off process. To be effective it needs to be ongoing so that the impact of activities on conflict dynamics and peace building is monitored, and NZAID is able to make changes where necessary to minimize harm and maximize positive impact. For this reason, it is important that the expected conflict and peace impact of interventions is made explicit in the design phase of strategies and Activities, and to develop indicators to measure these. Chapter 3 on Conflict Sensitive Implementation of the resource pack Conflict sensitive approaches to development, humanitarian assistance and peace building: Tools for peace and conflict impact assessment provides useful advice.
Further guidance
There are many other approaches which we have not referred to in this tool. Several publications provide useful tables comparing these approaches, including:
For more specific guidance on when to undertake a conflict risk assessment, what approach or methodology to use, the depth of analysis appropriate, and the specifics of how to do it, contact the NZAID Governance Advisor, or members of the Community of Practice.