Conflict Risk Assessment
NZAID commitment, rationale and key concepts
NZAID Commitment
NZAID’s policy on Preventing Conflict and Building Peace recognizes that peace and security are fundamental to achieving the fulfillment of basic needs, and sustainable and equitable development. NZAID’s policy states that NZAID will “ensure that all strategies and programmes consider the risks of conflict and are designed to prevent conflict and build peace”.
NZAID’s policy on Preventing Conflict and Building Peace and this guideline relate to violent conflict and the ways in which societies manage it. It is primarily focused on violent conflict with the potential to escalate across society, and on the problem of intra-state hostilities. The word conflict is used throughout this document to refer to violent conflict.
Given the increasing prominence of whole-of-government approaches in conflict and post-conflict environments, effective responses require coordination between diplomatic, military, and development efforts. This means it is particularly important to consider if and how other relevant parts of government might be involved in any conflict-risk assessment undertaken by NZAID, and how the findings of such assessment can be disseminated and discussed with New Zealand government and other stakeholders in order to help develop a shared understanding of the situation.
At the time of writing (January 2008) NZAID has very limited experience in conducting conflict-risk assessments. This tool serves to provide an introduction to conflict-risk assessment, and provide guidance to NZAID staff so that it can be applied to strategies and programmes, in line with NZAID policy. It will be important that lessons learnt are captured and shared, and that this tool is updated at an early stage.
Rationale
Although the exact links between underdevelopment and conflict remain unclear, today the majority of the world’s violent and protracted conflict takes place in developing countries, with intra-state conflict being the most common form. Donors have become aware that development assistance can both ameliorate and exacerbate the underlying causes of a conflict, and/or have a positive or negative impact on conflict dynamics. Many donors, including NZAID, are therefore interested in incorporating conflict awareness into their strategies and programmes. Various tools have been developed to analyse conflict (or potential conflict), and identify responses that will make development programmes more conflict sensitive.
Key concepts
Conflict is inherent in all societies from the least developed to the most industrialized. It occurs not only between states, but also within and between households and communities and within states. When resolved constructively, conflict can lead to social innovation and economic progress; and can be a constructive and necessary force for political, social or economic change.
Over time, societies develop institutions (including formal and informal rules) to manage and resolve conflict. A structurally stable society has functional conflict resolution mechanisms to manage conflict constructively and non-violently. These mechanisms allow for people’s participation, and provide for their security. Representative political systems, transparent and accountable government, civilian oversight of security forces, free and independent media, and legal systems that protect human rights, a functioning police force and an independent judiciary equip a country to manage and transform tensions and conflicts that will arise. Policies that reduce poverty and inequality including in health and education, improve human rights, provide economic opportunities and promote good governance can contribute to the prevention of violent conflict.
Conflict sensitivity in development programming is about: understanding the context in which you operate; understanding the interaction between your intervention and the context; and acting upon the understanding of this interaction, in order to avoid negative impacts (“do no harm”) and maximise positive impacts.