Conflict Risk Assessment
Why undertake conflict-risk assessment?
Conflict-risk assessments are undertaken in order to improve the effectiveness of development policy and programmes in countries where NZAID engages. Undertaking a conflict-risk assessment provides no guarantee that violent conflict will not take place, but it can help us to understand the local context and assess:
- risks of negative effects of conflict on programmes;
- risks of programmes or policies exacerbating conflict;
- opportunities to improve the effectiveness of development interventions in contributing to conflict prevention and reduction.
Conflict-risk assessment can help provide a basis for a policy dialogue, with partners, with other development actors, and within the New Zealand whole-of-government context. It can contribute to developing a shared understanding of the local context. This is a prerequisite for developing a coherent approach amongst different actors.
It is important that conflict-risk assessment does not make us risk-averse as an agency. Development involves change, and change is often accompanied by some degree of tension because it threatens vested interests. Undertaking a conflict-risk assessment can help us to understand the context better, and the likely impact of our intervention.
It should provide us with better information so that we are able to understand who is likely to benefit from (and support) and who is likely to lose from (and work against) a particular intervention. For example, an intervention which aims to strengthen the voice of women in local level decision making may create conflict with traditional governance structures, including when strengthening traditional governance structures has been seen as desirable for conflict prevention. Or an economic development project may create jealousy within a community if individuals or families become successful entrepreneurs, even in situations where lack of economic opportunity is a cause of conflict. These are not reasons to avoid supporting women’s empowerment or economic development. Rather, effective conflict-risk assessment should help us to predict these tensions, and develop risk management strategies that could lead to a more successful intervention overall.